Analyst Predicts 20m Google+ Users By Weekend

Google+ could have 20 million users by the weekend, according to one analyst.

In a Google+ post, Paul Allen, Ancestry.com founder and self-proclaimed unofficial Google+ statistician, has explained his surname-based system, which already pegged user levels at 7.3 million on 10 July, up from 1.3 million on 4 July.

The system compares US Census Bureau data on surname popularity with the number of Google+ users with each surname.

By using a sample of 100-200 surnames, Allen says he is able to accurately estimate the total percentage of the US population that has signed up for Google+.

In order to generate worldwide estimates, Allen has updated his previous formula by calculating the ratio of 1 US user for every 2.12 non-US users.

Best guess

“That is definitely a weakness in my model that I hope to address soon. The ratio will likely change over time,” he wrote.

“I do believe it is quite accurate. Much more accurate than a guess. It is based on sound starting data, but some of my assumptions may not be perfect.”

Whether growth reaches or approaches the predictions in Allen’s models, Google+ has piqued curiosity.

Clash of the Titans

Interest in Google’s latest stab at social networking is high, especially after Buzz failed to make an impact, and because it pits Google directly against fellow web giant and current social networking king Facebook.

Facebook is reported to have 750 million users, which dwarfs any estimate on Google+ although Google’s effort is only two weeks old.

Onlookers are keen to see if Google+ can maintain its momentum when no longer a curiosity, and become an established and practical social networking player.