More than 11.2 million light vehicles equipped with some form of
Vehicle-to-Everything (V2X) system will be produced globally in 2024,
representing 12 percent of the light vehicle fleet, based on new
research and forecasts from business information provider IHS Markit
(NASDAQ: INFO). It is expected that production of light vehicles
equipped with V2X systems will be just under 15,000 units in 2019 and
will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 277.5 percent in
2024.
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The automotive telematics forecasts from IHS Markit analyze technology
deployment, monitor OEM sourcing strategies and identify specific new
business opportunities through a six-year forecast calendar of new
programs. The data represents production forecasts of factory-installed
telematics systems in new light vehicles.
A major driving force for the implementation of enhanced connectivity in
vehicles today is the demand for safer roads and the minimization of
road fatalities. While automatic crash notification systems are doing
their part in this matrix, the introduction of V2X is expected to
revolutionize the way consumers drive, if not the entire transportation
system.
In the debate over which technology V2X should be based on, dedicated
short-range communications (DSRC) solutions lead the global automotive
V2X market in the near term as it represents a proven technology with
chips for system implementation readily available from several
semiconductor companies. By 2020, overall deployment numbers will still
be relatively low, according to IHS Markit forecasts, but cellular V2X
(C-V2X) solutions will already have surpassed DSRC based solutions, due
to expected rapid deployment in China.
China is expected to lead the global V2X market, with an estimated
629,000 light vehicles produced in the region equipped with C-V2X
technology in 2020, with the country expected to stay in the lead
through to 2024. Europe is expected to be the second largest V2X market
but with reliance mostly on DSRC-based solutions and just over 411,000
light vehicles produced during 2020. By 2023, Europe will also produce a
significant amount of C-V2X based vehicles.
Japan and Korea also will achieve more noticeable deployments of
DSRC-based solutions by 2021, showing a total of over 61,000 of such
light vehicles produced between the two countries. In the North American
market, production of C-V2X equipped cars is also expected to start in
2021 with just under 56,000 vehicles produced during that year. India
isn’t expected to see any type of V2X production in vehicles until 2023,
while the South America region falls outside of the forecast period
(2017-2024) altogether.
“DSRC is a well-proven technology, but early testing of C-V2X based
solutions are now being done by several companies,” said Anna Buettner,
connected car principal analyst at IHS Markit. “C-V2X is gaining market
momentum quickly in most regions and is likely to become the winning
technology of choice over time, while a combined approach, in which both
technologies are used, is also a real possibility in the near term while
the technology is still developing.”
5G regulations are developing rapidly throughout many regions. Initial
proposals made by governmental bodies, such as the one made by the
European Commission in early March, could have potentially delayed
cellular-based V2X deployment in Europe. However, since the
announcement, the EU Parliament’s transport committee has come forward
to reject the proposal alongside a number of OEMs. The latest vote by
the European Commission now enables future 5G deployment, which would
support C-V2X in automotive. Meanwhile, the US Federal Communications
Commission has recently delayed a vote to once again review a key
technology that would pave the way for DSRC in the United States,
highlighting the differences in regional approach that exist within key
regulatory bodies.
“While regulatory bodies can greatly influence the fate and speed of
deployment of V2X technologies, the momentum of V2X technology
development will not be slowed down at the OEM and supplier level. This
technology is here to stay,” added Buettner.
About IHS Markit (www.ihsmarkit.com)
IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO) is a world leader in critical information,
analytics and solutions for the major industries and markets that drive
economies worldwide. The company delivers next-generation information,
analytics and solutions to customers in business, finance and
government, improving their operational efficiency and providing deep
insights that lead to well-informed, confident decisions. IHS Markit has
more than 50,000 business and government customers, including 80 percent
of the Fortune Global 500 and the world’s leading financial
institutions. Headquartered in London, IHS Markit is committed to
sustainable, profitable growth.
Automotive offerings and expertise at IHS Markit span every major market
and the entire automotive value chain—from product planning to
marketing, sales and the aftermarket. For additional information, please
visit www.ihsmarkit.com/automotive
or email automotive@ihsmarkit.com.
IHS Markit is a registered trademark of IHS Markit Ltd. and/or its
affiliates. All other company and product names may be trademarks of
their respective owners © 2019 IHS Markit Ltd. All rights reserved.
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