The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, a leading national poll on consumer confidence, fell another 7.5% after last month’s 9.5% drop. The index sits at 38.1 – its lowest reading since August 2011 (35.8). The index now has been in negative territory for 10 consecutive months. A reading above 50.0 signals optimism and below 50.0 indicates pessimism on IBD/TIPP indexes.
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has established a strong track record of foreshadowing the confidence indicators issued later each month by the University of Michigan and The Conference Board.
For the June index, IBD/TIPP surveyed 1,310 adults June 8-10. The poll was conducted online using TechnoMetrica’s network of online panels to provide the sample. IBD/TIPP also surveyed respondents on key political issues for the separate Presidential Leadership Index and National Outlook Index, as well as the Financial Related Stress Index.
This month, the Presidential Leadership Index was again down across the board. Its overall reading of 42.7 slipped 4.5% from May’s reading of 44.7. This marked the lowest month of Biden’s presidency. All index components remain in negative territory.
The National Outlook Index also hit its lowest point since September of 2020, falling another 4.2% after May’s 10.2% drop. The index now sits at 38.9. Morals & Ethics hung onto the lowest reading of any component at 33.3, although it was the only component to rise, moving up from last month’s reading of 32.7.
Financial Related Stress inched up. Its current reading of 69.5 was up 0.3% from last month’s 69.3. A reading over 50.0 on this index equals more financial stress while a reading below 50.0 would indicate consumers feel less stress. The index was last below 50.0 in February 2020 (48.1).
“This month’s indexes spell trouble for Democrats heading into midterm elections,” said Ed Carson, IBD’s news editor. “Diving into the Economic and Presidential Leadership Indexes in particular, we saw big drops in support for the president and his policies coming from his own party, rather than with independents and members of the GOP. Concern over the economy – and Biden’s ability to fix it – is weighing on Americans.”
The flagship IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has three key components. In June, all three declined.
- The Six-Month Economic Outlook, a measure of how consumers feel about the economy’s prospects in the next six months, fell 7.8% this month. Its reading of 30.6, down from 33.2 in May, hit its lowest point since July 2008 (29.4).
- The Personal Financial Outlook, a measure of how Americans feel about their own finances in the next six months, returned to negative territory in June. Its reading of 46.4 dropped 7.9% from May’s 50.4. This is the lowest reading for this component since the Economic Optimism Index began tracking it in February 2001.
- Confidence in Federal Economic Policies, a proprietary IBD/TIPP measure of views on how government economic policies are working, slipped 6.7% to 37.4 in June, down from 40.1 in May. This reading is the lowest it’s been since September 2015 (36.2).
“The June numbers are quite bleak. Most Americans (53%) feel we are now in a recession and two-thirds (67%) feel the economy is not improving,” said Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica, who directed the poll. “A full 90% are worried about inflation. Pain is particularly acute at the pump. Gasoline prices have taken over as the top economic issue for 59% of respondents, up from 47% last month. With more Americans cutting back on spending and the Personal Financial Outlook component hitting a record low, people are scared about what the coming months will hold.”
Economic Optimism Index Breakdown
This month, just one of 21 demographic groups — such as age, income, race and party preference — that IBD/TIPP tracks was above 50.0, in positive territory, on the Economic Optimism Index. That’s vs. four in May, seven in April, three in both March and February, five in January and seven in December. Three groups rose in June vs. one in May, 20 in April, three groups in March, eight in February, three in January and 18 in December.
For the Six-Month Economic Outlook component, none of the 21 groups that IBD/TIPP tracks scored in optimistic territory vs. one in May, three in April, one in March, February and January and six in December. Optimism over the economy’s six-month outlook rose for five groups in June vs. zero in May, 20 in April, one in March, 11 in February, four in January and 18 in December.
For the Personal Financial component, six groups IBD/TIPP tracks were in optimistic territory vs. nine in May, 14 in April, six in March, 14 in February and 15 in January and December. Two groups rose after six did in May, 19 in April, two in March, none in February, six in January and 17 in December.
For the Federal Policies component, one of the 21 demographic groups tracked was above 50.0 vs. four in May, six in April, three in March and February, two in January and eight in December. Four groups rose in June vs. one in May, 18 in April, 10 in March, four in February, five in January and 18 in December.
ABOUT THE IBD©/TIPP POLL
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index is the earliest take on consumer confidence each month and predicts with good reliability monthly changes in sentiment in well-known polls by The Conference Board and the University of Michigan. The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index is based on a survey of about 1,300 adults conducted using a network of online panels. The national poll is generally conducted in the first week of the month.
For more information, go to https://tippinsights.com. To license the IBD/TIPP Poll, please contact IBDlicensing@investors.com.
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