Home prices across the United States rose in the first three months of the year at an annualized rate of 9.3 percent, according to Radian Home Price Index (HPI) data released today by Red Bell Real Estate, LLC, a Radian Group Inc. company (NYSE: RDN). The company believes the Radian HPI is the most comprehensive and timely measure of U.S. housing market prices and conditions available in the market today.
The Radian HPI also rose 8.8 percent year-over-year (March 2020 to March 2021), which was slightly higher than the year-over-year increase of 8.3 percent recorded last month. The annualized increase represents an increase in the general upward trend in annualized yearly gains thus far in 2021. The Radian HPI is calculated based on the estimated values of more than 70 million unique addresses each month, covering all single-family property types and geographies.
“There has been no taking the foot off the pedal this winter season as home prices during the first quarter continue to grow,” noted Steve Gaenzler, SVP of Data and Analytics. “Sales transactions are still closing at rates not seen in prior winters and, in fact, are at higher levels than some spring or summer months of the past. We continue to see a broad “seller” market for real estate across the Nation,” added Gaenzler.
NATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS
- Median home price in the U.S. rose to $274,256 in March
- Home prices rose an annualized 9.3 percent during the first quarter
Nationally, the median estimated price for single-family and condominium homes rose to $274,256 in March from the $272,186 recorded in February. Across the U.S., home prices rose 9.4 percent in the first quarter, matching the increase during the fourth-quarter 2020 of 9.4 percent. Distressed sales in March 2021 represented just 4.4 percent of all sales. This marks the ninth month in a row of sub-5.0 percent market share for distressed sales, a reflection of the continued impact of forbearance measures and foreclosure moratoriums in effect nationally.
In general, the volume of active listings of property for sale continues to shrink. The fourth quarter of 2007 was the last time the quarterly average count of active listings was as low as this past quarter. “While we anticipate many potential sellers to reconsider listings postponed during COVID, there still remains a natural shortage of home supply across the U.S., and a similar set of first time buying millennials and other buyers, sidelined last year as well,” noted Gaenzler.
REGIONAL DATA AND TRENDS
- First quarter 2021 results are positive for all Regions
- West and South Regions strongest, Northeast and MidAtlantic weakest
In the first three months of 2021, all six Regional indices recorded positive home price appreciation rates. While typically a slower period for housing activity, the first quarter 2021 recorded the highest number of listed sale transactions ever. At over 750,000 sales, the first quarter beat the year ago first quarter’s prior record by almost 50,000 sales. Months of Supply, which helps measure the balance between supply and demand, stood at 3.7 months of supply in March. This was down from 5.6 months in March of last year. Declining months of supply often result in increased price competition and price stability.
The Northeast recorded the slowest rate of appreciation in the first quarter of the year. While Vermont was very active throughout 2020, the rate of appreciation has been weaker in 2021 than other regional states thus far in 2021. Connecticut continues to outperform prior year appreciation, and Maine is the strongest state in the region from a price performance perspective.
The West and South continue to accelerate home price gains. In the quarter, homes at all price points recorded higher gains than the prior month, and only 8 of the 22 states that make up these two regions had lower rates of appreciation when compared to the fourth quarter of 2020. Florida and Louisiana were two of the better performing states during the quarter.
METROPOLITAN AREA DATA AND TRENDS
- Metro areas end quarter on strong note
- 19 of the top 20 largest Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) accelerated
All but one of the 20 largest metro areas (New York) in the U.S recorded positive price appreciation in March at a rate higher than the preceding month. All but two (New York, Minneapolis) large metros recorded higher quarterly price appreciation rates than the fourth quarter of 2020. In general, we continue to see price pressure at all price points.
Not surprisingly we continue to see Days on Market (DOM) fall for listed properties in the U.S. and in the largest metropolitan areas. Nationally, DOM fell to another record low for both active listings and for properties sold in the month. At 106 days, the inventory of active listings continues to shrink, while properties that are sold are selling in an average of only 85 days.
ABOUT THE RADIAN HPI
Red Bell Real Estate, LLC, a subsidiary of Radian Group Inc., provides national and regional indices for download at radian.com/hpi, along with information on how to access the full library of indices.
Additional content on the housing market can also be found on the Radian Insights page located at https://radian.com/news-and-knowledge/insights.
Red Bell offers the Radian HPI data set along with a client access portal for content visualization and data extraction. The engine behind the Radian HPI has created more than 100,000 unique data series, which are updated on a monthly basis.
The Radian HPI Portal is a self-service data and visualization platform that contains a library of thousands of high-value indices based on both geographic dimensions as well as by market, or property attributes. The platform provides monthly updated access to nine different geographic dimensions, from the national level down to zip codes. In addition, the Radian HPI provides unique insights into market changes, conditions and strength across multiple property attributes, including bedroom count and livable square footage. To help enhance its customers’ understanding of granular real estate markets, the library is expanded regularly to include more insightful indices.
In addition to the services offered by its Red Bell subsidiary, Radian is ensuring the American dream of homeownership responsibly and sustainably through products and services that include industry-leading mortgage insurance and a comprehensive suite of mortgage, risk, title, valuation, asset management and other real estate services. The company is powered by technology, informed by data and driven to deliver new and better ways to transact and manage risk. Visit http://www.radian.com to see how Radian is shaping the future of mortgage and real estate services.