Press release

Guidehouse Insights Report Shows the Global Commercial Heat Pump Market Is Expected to Experience an 8.6% Compound Annual Growth Rate from 2020-2029

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A new report from Guidehouse Insights examines the global market for commercial heat pump and variable refrigerant flow (VRF) systems with a focus on North America. Global market forecasts are provided through 2029.

Although multiple options exist to decarbonize heat in commercial buildings, electrification is widely considered the most commercially viable pathway. Technologies such as electric heat pumps and VRF systems can meet heating needs and help meet greenhouse gas targets in most climates in North America, and for many other areas globally. According to a new report from Guidehouse Insights, the global commercial heat pump market is estimated at $25.2 billion in 2020, growing to $52.8 billion in 2029, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.6%.

“Around the world, new climate-related targets are spurring added growth and competition among market players,” says Sasha Wedekind, research analyst with Guidehouse Insights. “Heat pumps and VRF systems have seen sustained growth in adoption over the past 5 years, and the market is now reaching a tipping point.”

Given the diversity of electrification and decarbonization policies and agendas across global markets, different technology mixes are expected to evolve to support local needs. According the report, the US market is expected to be the fastest growing opportunity for heat pump and VRF manufacturers in the short term. Growth is expected to be driven by the speed of regulations around decarbonization and electrification and low adoption of heat pump and VRF systems in the region to date.

The report, Commercial Building Electrification, examines the global market for commercial heat pump and VRF systems considering increasing building decarbonization and electrification priorities set by governments around the world. The report provides an analysis of this market with a focus on North America and a 10-year (2020-2029) global forecast. Trends in the European and Asia Pacific markets are also discussed, in part to provide context to the North American market. The forecast includes three regions (North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific) segmented by heat source type (air, water, and ground), heat pump type (VRF and other), project type (new construction and retrofit), and eight commercial building types. An executive summary of the report is available for free download on the Guidehouse Insights website.

About Guidehouse Insights

Guidehouse Insights, the dedicated market intelligence arm of Guidehouse, provides research, data, and benchmarking services for today’s rapidly changing and highly regulated industries. Our insights are built on in-depth analysis of global clean technology markets. The team’s research methodology combines supply-side industry analysis, end-user primary research, and demand assessment, paired with a deep examination of technology trends, to provide a comprehensive view of emerging resilient infrastructure systems. Additional information about Guidehouse Insights can be found at

About Guidehouse

Guidehouse is a leading global provider of consulting services to the public and commercial markets with broad capabilities in management, technology, and risk consulting. We help clients address their toughest challenges with a focus on markets and clients facing transformational change, technology-driven innovation and significant regulatory pressure. Across a range of advisory, consulting, outsourcing, and technology/analytics services, we help clients create scalable, innovative solutions that prepare them for future growth and success. Headquartered in Washington DC, the company has more than 7,000 professionals in more than 50 locations. Guidehouse is led by seasoned professionals with proven and diverse expertise in traditional and emerging technologies, markets and agenda-setting issues driving national and global economies. For more information, please visit:

* The information contained in this press release concerning the report, Commercial Building Electrification, is a summary and reflects the current expectations of Guidehouse Insights based on market data and trend analysis. Market predictions and expectations are inherently uncertain and actual results may differ materially from those contained in this press release or the report. Please refer to the full report for a complete understanding of the assumptions underlying the report’s conclusions and the methodologies used to create the report. Neither Guidehouse Insights nor Guidehouse undertakes any obligation to update any of the information contained in this press release or the report.