Businesses Recover Half of Shifts Lost During COVID-19 Pandemic, Hiring Remains Anemic

National Overview:

Kronos Incorporated today announced that half (50%) of employee shifts¹ eliminated during the COVID-19 pandemic have recovered. The Kronos U.S. Workforce Activity Report for June 8-14, 2020 also shows that employees are working 27% more shifts compared to the week ending April 12, 2020, which marked “the bottom” of employee shift work volume during the pandemic, continuing a gradual but steady 9-week increase in shifts worked as states execute various phased re-opening plans.

Job Growth:

Employee terminations² for the week of June 8-14 outpaced new hires³ by a ratio of approximately 2.5-to-1, meaning for every 2.5 terminations there was only 1 new hire. While this is an improvement over the 3.4-to-1 terminations-to-hiring ratio the week ending March 29 – the same week the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit its lowest point during the pandemic – it lags dramatically behind the pre-pandemic ratio of 1-to-1, which indicates healthy job creation and turnover in a strong economy.

State Snapshot:

Only seven states experienced week-over-week declines in shift work: Alaska (-5.5%), Florida (-0.5%), Hawaii (-1%), Missouri (-0.2%), Nebraska (-0.2%), North Dakota (-0.2%), and South Carolina (-6.6%). Nevada, which at its peak was the hardest-hit state in terms of overall shifts lost (-75%) since the start of the pandemic, now ranks 31^st (-14% overall). Rhode Island (-58%), Connecticut (-46%), South Carolina (-40%), Massachusetts (-38%), and Utah (-38%) are the top five states hardest hit by lost shifts since the week ending March 15.

Industry Analysis:

Every industry sector continues to make significant strides in recovering employee shifts: Healthcare is now down just 8% from pre-pandemic shift levels; manufacturing is down just 16%; retail, hospitality, and food service is down 19%; services and distribution – which includes logistics and distribution, financial services, staffing, call centers, nonprofits, and other field and contract services – is down 22%; and public sector, which is now grappling with anticipated budget shortfalls generated by declines in tax receipts due to state shutdowns, has increased shifts 47.5% since the week ending April 12, but remains down 34% overall.

Commentary:

Dave Gilbertson, vice president, HCM practice group, Kronos

“While shiftwork continues to rebound on a gradual and steady basis, those shifts are being worked by those still on the payroll or returning from furlough. New hiring remains stalled. With flexibility recently added to the Payroll Protection Program, business owners are likely watching for assurances that consumer demand will be high while COVID-19 cases remain low during the summer season before making long-term decisions about job creation.”

Timeliness:

The Kronos U.S. Workforce Activity Report provides near real-time insights into workplace activity for the immediate preceding week. The report is currently analyzed and released weekly and inclusive of data through June 14. Historical reports, beginning April 13-19, 2020 are available at Kronos.com/USWorkforceActivity.