China’s robotics industry is expected to grow by 23 percent annually to reach $108 billion (£79.4bn) in 2028 from $47bn last year, boosting the country’s already dominant position in the sector, Morgan Stanley researchers said in a new research note.

Hong Kong-based analysts Sheng Zhong and Chelsea Wang estimated Chinese companies accounted for about 40 percent of the worldwide robotics market last year. They did not give a specific forecast for China’s 2028 market share.

China is the world’s largest robotics market and also “arguably the world’s innovation hub” propelling both cost efficiencies and next-gen developments, they said.

Social impact

Robots have been reshaping China’s industry and “will have a deeper impact on society in the future” as they become more intelligent, collaborative and affordable, the note said.

Drones are likely to become China’s largest robotics segment, increasing from $19bn last year to $40bn in 2028, the researchers predicted.

Humanoid robots, while a smaller segment, are expected to grow at a rapid annual pace of 63 percent from $300m this year to $3.4bn by 2030.

By 2030 the country is expected to have domestic deployments of 252,000 humanoid robots, rising to 302 million units by 2050, accounting for an expected 30 percent of the world’s humanoid robots, Zhong and Wang projected.

They said this year is expected to mark a “milestone” with the beginning of mass production of humanoid robots.

China accounted for more than half of the world’s robot installations last year and is also the home of more than 741,000 robotics-related companies, including prominent firms such as UBTech, Unitree and Agibot.

Key industry

The country’s Made in China 2025 initiative, launched more than a decade ago to bring China to the forefront of various high-tech industries, had robotics leadership as a key goal.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics on Monday said the country’s industrial robot production jumped 35 percent year-on-year in May to 69,056 units, with service robots rising 13.8 percent to 1.2 million units.

Companies as diverse as Meta Platforms and electric car maker Tesla have been experimenting with humanoid robots as a means of implementing current advances in AI technology.

In March Mercedes-Benz said it was trialling humanoid robots from Texas-based Apptronik for some tasks on its production lines.