IDC Raises Smartphone Shipment Forecast Amid GenAI Optimism

Analyst house International Data Corporation (IDC) has delivered more welcome news to smartphone manufacturers.

IDC in its Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker forecast that worldwide smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 5.8 percent year over year in 2024 to 1.23 billion units. This is up from its previous forecast of 4 percent growth to 1.21 billion units.

The rebound in the smartphone market has been predicted for a while now by multiple analyst groups, after a tough couple of years following the pandemic.

Smartphone shipments

Now IDC saying that the 12 percent growth in the first quarter, the 9 percent growth in the second quarter, has brought improved optimism about how 2024 will play out in the second half of 2024.

The researchers highlighted affordable Android smartphones which continue to grow rapidly in emerging markets.

It also indicated that premium markets are starting to “embrace GenAI smartphones, generating excitement and renewed interest in the industry.”

“The improved forecast for 2024 cements the road to recovery for the smartphone market, driven by stronger growth for Android devices in China and emerging markets,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker.

“The resulting growth for Android this year will be nine times faster at 7.1 percent than iOS at 0.8 percent,” said Popal. “Apple’s softer growth is a result of increasing competition in China but also a higher comparison base year. However, there is a potential upside to the iOS forecast with a lot depending on how well the demonstrated GenAI use cases play out in the upcoming iPhone 16 launch and how soon Apple can establish local AI partnerships in China.”

Generative AI

“IDC expects the iOS trajectory to improve in 2025 with 4 percent year-over-year growth thanks to Apple Intelligence, “which is already creating a lot of excitement and is expected to gain momentum next year and encourage faster upgrades,” said Popal.

“Although GenAI smartphones are relatively new in the market, premium flagships will continue to adopt GenAI features to help separate them from the pack,” added Anthony Scarsella, research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker.

“IDC expects a robust 344 percent growth for GenAI smartphones capturing 18 percent share of the total market by end of 2024, as most flagships will adopt some on-device GenAI features,” said Scarsella.

“However, GenAI-capable devices won’t come cheap initially, as the average selling price for these GenAI smartphones will be more than double the cost of non-GenAI capable devices, further driving the premiumisation trend,” Scarsella concluded.

Google has already launched its AI infused Pixel 9 smartphones, whilst Apple is expected to showcase “Apple Intelligence” in its latest iPhone 16 portfolio, in a 9 September “Glowtime” event.